wallet-profiling Checked

| Focus | Detection Criteria |

|-------|-------------------|

| PumpFun Specialist | > 70% of trades on PumpFun-launched tokens |

| DEX Trader | Primarily swaps on Raydium/Orca/Meteora |

| DeFi Farmer | Frequent LP add/remove, staking operations |

| NFT Trader | Significant NFT marketplace interactions |

| Multi-Strategy | No single category exceeds 50% |

Performance Metrics

### Core Metrics

**Win Rate** — Percentage of trades that are profitable.

win_rate = count(pnl > 0) / count(all_closed_trades)

Minimum 30 trades for statistical significance. A 60% win rate across 200 trades is far more meaningful than 80% across 10 trades.

**Average ROI Per Trade** — Mean return across all closed positions.

avg_roi = mean((exit_value - entry_value) / entry_value)

Include all fees: platform fees, priority fees, and estimated slippage.

**Profit Factor** — Ratio of gross profits to gross losses.

profit_factor = sum(winning_pnl) / abs(sum(losing_pnl))

Interpretation: > 2.0 excellent, 1.5–2.0 good, 1.0–1.5 marginal, < 1.0 losing.

**Total PnL** — Cumulative profit/loss in SOL.

total_pnl = sum(all_trade_pnl)

**Maximum Drawdown** — Largest peak-to-trough decline in cumulative PnL curve.

drawdown = (peak_equity - trough_equity) / peak_equity

**Sharpe-Like Ratio** — Risk-adjusted return metric.

sharpe = mean(trade_returns) / std(trade_returns) * sqrt(trades_per_year)

See references/performance_metrics.md for detailed formulas, edge cases, and interpretation guidelines.

### Activity Metrics

| Metric | Calculation | What It Reveals |

|--------|------------|-----------------|

| Trades per day | total_trades / active_days | Activity level and capacity |

| Average hold time | mean(exit_time - entry_time) | Trading style confirmation |

| Token diversity | unique_tokens / total_trades | Specialization vs. diversification |

| Peak hours | mode(hour_of_trade) | Session patterns, timezone hints |

| Activity streaks | consecutive active days | Dedication and consistency |

Data Sources

### SolanaTracker PnL API (Primary)

The SolanaTracker API provides pre-computed PnL data per wallet per token.

import httpx

url = f"https://data.solanatracker.io/pnl/{wallet_address}"
headers = {"x-api-key": os.getenv("ST_API_KEY")}
resp = httpx.get(url, headers=headers)
pnl_data = resp.json()

Response includes per-token: realized, unrealized, total_invested, total_sold, num_buys, num_sells, last_trade_time.

### Helius Parsed Transactions (Detailed)

For granular transaction-level analysis, use the helius-api skill to fetch parsed transaction history. This provides exact timestamps, amounts, and program interactions.

### Birdeye Trader Data

Birdeye's trader endpoints provide wallet-level analytics. See the birdeye-api skill for endpoint details.

### DexScreener (Free Fallback)

DexScreener does not provide wallet-level PnL but can be used to validate token prices at trade timestamps.

Copy-Trade Evaluation Framework

Before following a wallet's trades, verify these criteria:

### Minimum Requirements

• **Trade history**: At least 50 closed trades (100+ preferred)
• **Time span**: Active for at least 30 days
• **Consistent performance**: Rolling 7-day win rate standard deviation < 15%
• **Reasonable sizing**: No single trade > 20% of observed portfolio
• **Diverse tokens**: At least 10 unique tokens traded

### Green Flags

• Profit factor > 1.8 sustained over 60+ days
• Win rate 45–65% (unrealistically high rates suggest wash trading)
• Moderate trade frequency (2–20 trades/day)
• Mixed hold times indicating adaptive strategy
• Gradual equity curve growth (not step-function jumps)

### Red Flags

• **New wallet** (< 14 days old): Possible sybil or one-hit-wonder
• **Single big win**: One trade accounts for > 50% of total PnL
• **Declining performance**: Last-30-day metrics significantly below all-time
• **Bot-like patterns**: Uniform timing/sizing without proportional edge
• **Extreme win rate**: > 80% often indicates small wins with catastrophic losses
• **Concentration**: > 50% of PnL from a single token
• **Wash trading signals**: Repeated buy/sell of same token with minimal price movement

### Risk Score Calculation

risk_score = 0  # 0 = low risk, 100 = high risk

if wallet_age_days < 14:
    risk_score += 25
if top_trade_pnl_pct > 0.5:
    risk_score += 20
if recent_pf < historical_pf * 0.7:
    risk_score += 15
if bot_probability > 0.7:
    risk_score += 15
if win_rate > 0.8:
    risk_score += 10
if unique_tokens < 5:
    risk_score += 15

Integration with Other Skills

• **whale-tracking**: Identify large wallets, then profile them here for behavioral context
• **token-holder-analysis**: Profile top holders of a token to assess holder quality
• **solana-onchain**: Fetch raw transaction data for deep-dive analysis
• **helius-api**: Parsed transaction history for granular trade reconstruction
• **birdeye-api**: Token price data for PnL validation

Quick Start

### Profile a Single Wallet

# Set environment variables
# export WALLET_ADDRESS=YourTargetWallet...
# export ST_API_KEY=your_